Under the constraints of carbon neutrality targets, profound technological transformation will fundamentally reshape current socioeconomic and industrial structures. Human activities are expected to undergo major changes in the coming decades, leading to fundamental shifts in the quantities and structures of greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions. Changes in energy systems, industrial layouts, and emissions will further exert significant impacts on the Earth\u2019s environment. Therefore, there is an urgent need to develop a theoretical modeling framework that deeply couples human activities with natural systems, to build integrated assessment models of natural\u2013social systems, to investigate changes in anthropogenic emissions and their climate, environmental, and resource effects under carbon neutrality pathways, and to explore synergistic solutions and policy pathways under multiple objectives.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
To address this major scientific challenge, the research teams led by Academician Kebin He and Professor Qiang Zhang at Tsinghua University have developed natural\u2013social coupled system modeling techniques based on independently developed tools and datasets, including the Multi-resolution Emission Inventory model, the Dynamic Projection model for Future Emissions, the Dynamic Emission Mitigation Cost model, and the near-real-time atmospheric composition tracking dataset. By coupling and integrating the integrated assessment model GCAM-China, the Community Earth System Model (CESM), atmospheric chemical transport models, and pollution exposure\u2013response models, the teams have preliminarily established the Carbon Neutrality and Clean Air Synergetic Platform for Scientific Assessment and Decision Support (CNCAP).<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Through dynamic simulations of socioeconomic and natural systems under future carbon neutrality and clean air pathways, CNCAP aims to address a series of key scientific questions related to the evolution of and feedbacks between human activities and natural systems under China\u2019s dual carbon goals, and to provide scientific and technological support for achieving sustainable development.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The CNCAP platform consists of three main modules: Emission Pathway Simulation, Pollution Exposure Simulation, and Cost\u2013Benefit Assessment. These modules are jointly driven by socioeconomic pathways and multidimensional policy objectives. The Emission Pathway Simulation Module dynamically projects future energy and resource supply\u2013demand patterns, as well as multi-media and multi-component emissions under different pathways. Based on future atmospheric species emissions provided by the Emission Pathway Simulation Module, the Pollution Exposure Simulation Module assesses the two-way feedbacks between meteorological variables and atmospheric composition under future climate change, and simulates changes in atmospheric pollutant concentrations and population exposure levels under different scenarios. The Cost\u2013Benefit Assessment Module estimates emission reduction costs, climate effects, health effects, and resource effects under different emission pathways, and evaluates their overall costs and benefits.<\/p>\n\n\n\n